Main takeaways:
  • November: advance retail sales rose 0.2%mom, below 0.3% market consensus; control group increased 0.6%mom above 0.4% consensus.
  • Trend growth remains unchanged:
    • 12-month growth of total retail sales ex gasoline stations increased from 4.3% to 4.4%.
    • 12-month growth of the 'control group' rose from 3.1% to 3.4%.
    • Both are very close to the 4-year growth pace: a resilient consumer!
    • Recall that retail prices are close to flat -- so the above growth rates are close to volume growth!
  • Inventory-to-sales ratio remained roughly flat (excluding gasoline).

The overall trend for retail sales remains unchanged. Excluding sales at gas stations the trend growth is healthy: 4.4% in the last year compared to 4.5% in the last 4 years (in nominal terms).

The chart below compares total retail sales with retail excluding gasoline sales. It is clear that most of the slowdown in retail sales in the last few months was due to falling gasoline prices (similar to what has happened earlier in the year).

Looking at the "control group" (total retail excluding auto dealers, bldg materials, gas stations) a similar growth picture emerges: 3.4% growth in the last year and 3.0% in the last 4 years.

Excluding residual sales of gasoline from the control group reveals a 1pp growth gap.

Also, it is important to recall that (control group) retail prices have been trending down in the last year...

...which results in a very healthy 3.6% growth rate in retail volumes.



Inventories: stable if one excludes gasoline sales (latest: October)




Extra charts

The charts below show retail and food services by kind of business. The red line is an index in log (averages zero in the period) so that a number 10 in the scale means sales are 10% higher than the period average. The red dashed line is the trend in the last 12 months and the blue bars (right scale) are the monthly percentage change. The headline is how the slope of the red dashed line has changed compared to last two months.


Last 12 months trend moved from 6.1% (Aug) to 6.7% to 6.4%


Last 12 months trend moved from 5.0% (Aug) to 5.5% to 5.8%


Last 12 months trend from -4.6% (Aug) to -3.8% to -1.8%


Last 12 months trend moved from 1.7% (Aug) to 3.4% to 3.0%


Last 12 months trend moved from 2.7% (Aug) to 1.9% to 1.8%


Last 12 months trend moved from 3.4% (Aug) to 4.0% to 3.8%


Last 12 months trend moved from -19.2% (Aug) to -14.2% to -11.6%


Last 12 months trend moved from 3.6% (Aug) to 2.6% to 1.8%



Last 12 months trend moved from 5.6% (Aug) to 6.0% to 7.0%


Last 12 months trend from 0.8% (Aug) to 2.0% to 2.9%


Last 12 months trend moved from 4.8% (Aug) to 3.9% to 2.9%


Last 12 months trend moved from 6.7% (Aug) to 6.7% to 7.2%


Last 12 months trend from 7.4% (Aug) to 5.6% to 5.9%