Main takeaways:
  • August: another good retail sales report -- two in a row after the latest FOMC meeting.
  • Small revisions to the previous two months were positive.
  • Growth resumed after the winter lull:
    • 12-month growth of total retail sales ex gasoline stations increased from 4.0% to 4.2%.
    • 12-month growth of the 'control group' increased from 2.4% to 3.1%.
    • Both are very close to the 4-year growth pace: a resilient consumer!
  • Inventory-to-sales ratio remained stable.
Another good retail sales report. Excluding sales at gas stations one can barely see the consumption growth scare that took place earlier in the year: total retail sales ex gas stations increased 4.2% in the last year compared to 4.5% in the last 4 years.


The chart below compares total retail sales with retail excluding gasoline sales. It is clear that most of the slowdown in retail sales earlier in the year was due to falling gasoline prices.


Looking at the "control group" (total retail excluding auto dealers, bldg materials, gas stations) a similar growth picture emerges: 3.1% growth in the last year and 3.0% in the last 4 years.


Revisions to the previous two months were positive.



Inventories: stable if one excludes gasoline sales (latest: July)


Extra charts
The charts below show retail and food services by kind of business. The red line is an index in log (averages zero in the period) so that a number 10 in the scale means sales are 10% higher than the period average. The red dashed line is the trend in the last 12 months and the blue bars (right scale) are the monthly percentage change. The headline is how the slope of the red dashed line has changed compared to last two months.

Last 12 months trend moved from 6.1% to 6.0% to 6.1%


Last 12 months trend moved from 5.0% to 5.7% to 5%


Last 12 months trend from -2.8% to -4.2% to -4.6%


Last 12 months trend moved from 0.9% to 2.3% to 1.7%


Last 12 months trend moved from 2.7% to 2.6% to 2.7%


Last 12 months trend moved from 1.9% to 2.6% to 3.4%


Last 12 months trend moved from -26.8% to -22% to -19.2%


Last 12 months trend moved from 2.1% to 3% to 3.6%



Last 12 months trend moved from 4.9% to 4.9% to 5.6%


Last 12 months trend from -0.4% to -0.3% to 0.8%


Last 12 months trend moved from 2.4% to 2.5% to 4.8%


Last 12 months trend moved from 4.5% to 5.8% to 6.7%


Last 12 months trend from 8.1% to 8.3% to 7.4%