Main takeaways:
  • October: advance retail sales rose 0.1%mom, below 0.3% market consensus; control group increased 0.2%mom vs 0.4% consensus.
  • Despite being below consensus, trend growth is unchanged:
    • 12-month growth of total retail sales ex gasoline stations increased from 4.2% to 4.3%.
    • 12-month growth of the 'control group' unchanged at 3.1%.
    • Both are very close to the 4-year growth pace: a resilient consumer!
  • Inventory-to-sales ratio remained stable.

Despite the weaker than expected monthly figures, the overall trend for retail sales remains unchanged. Total retail sales are flat in the last three months, but excluding sales at gas stations the trend growth is healthy: 4.3% in the last year compared to 4.5% in the last 4 years (in nominal terms).

The chart below compares total retail sales with retail excluding gasoline sales. It is clear that most of the slowdown in retail sales earlier in the year and the recent flattening were due to falling gasoline prices.

Looking at the "control group" (total retail excluding auto dealers, bldg materials, gas stations) a similar growth picture emerges: 3.1% growth in the last year and 3.0% in the last 4 years.

Revisions to the previous two months were a small positive.

Excluding residual sales of gasoline from the control group reveals a 1pp growth gap.


Inventories: stable if one excludes gasoline sales (latest: September)




Extra charts

The charts below show retail and food services by kind of business. The red line is an index in log (averages zero in the period) so that a number 10 in the scale means sales are 10% higher than the period average. The red dashed line is the trend in the last 12 months and the blue bars (right scale) are the monthly percentage change. The headline is how the slope of the red dashed line has changed compared to last two months.


Last 12 months trend moved from 6.1% (Aug) to 6.7%


Last 12 months trend moved from 5.0% (Aug) to 5.5%


Last 12 months trend from -4.6% (Aug) to -3.8%


Last 12 months trend moved from 1.7% (Aug) to 3.4%


Last 12 months trend moved from 2.7% (Aug) to 1.9%


Last 12 months trend moved from 3.4% (Aug) to 4.0%


Last 12 months trend moved from -19.2% (Aug) to -14.2%


Last 12 months trend moved from 3.6% (Aug) to 2.6%



Last 12 months trend moved from 5.6% (Aug) to 6.0%


Last 12 months trend from 0.8% (Aug) to 2.0%


Last 12 months trend moved from 4.8% (Aug) to 3.9%


Last 12 months trend moved from 6.7% (Aug) to 6.7%


Last 12 months trend from 7.4% (Aug) to 5.6%