Main takeaways:
  • World trade volumes rebounded after the slowdown earlier in the year.
  • But volumes are flat compared to last year.
The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Analysis (CPB - Centraal Planbureau) has released world trade volume data for September.

The charts below shows world trade volumes picking up a bit since the first quarter contraction, but the overall message is still of a very sluggish trade.

Chart 1a) Volume of world trade (exports & imports, seasonally adjusted)

Chart 1b) Volume of world trade (seasonally adjusted)

The charts below zoom in to the most recent four years to highlight the behavior of trade volumes at margin. Export trend growth in the last two years slowed from 2.4% to 2.1% (from July to September), while import trend growth slowed from 1.8% to 1.6% in the same comparison.

Chart 2a) Volume of world exports (seasonally adjusted, last 4 years)

Chart 2b) Volume of world imports (seasonally adjusted, last 4 years)

The breakdown by country/region show that export volumes from the Euro Area have been very resilient while export volumes fell in the other regions. Imports have rebounded in most regions in recent months.

Chart 3a) Export volumes by country / region (seasonally adjusted)

Chart 4b) Import volumes by country (seasonally adjusted)