The chart below plots oil prices vs CPI inflation for the last 10 years. One can see that there is a close association.


Indeed, using only oil prices one could have forecast the recent prints of CPI inflation.


Meanwhile, consumer prices excluding energy (and food) are very close to the median observed in the last 15 years (shades in the chart below are 1 and 2 standard deviation). And this happens despite the strengthening of the US dollar.


So, why is everyone worried about deflation / lowflation in the US?