Paulo's Econ Watch

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US December employment by category

Posted on January 11th, 2016

December employment by category

The charts below show employment by category. The blue line is total employment in the category, the orange bar is monthly change and the red line is the linear regression in the last two years.

Total payroll increased 292k in December, after a 252k growth in November (which was revised up from 211k). The trend for the last 6 months slowed from 280k/month by the end of last year to 229k in the 6 months to December.

Private payroll increased 275k in December, after 240k growth in November (revised up from 197k). The trend for the last 6 months slowed from 270k/month by the end of last year to 219k in the 6 months to December.

Most of the slowdown in the pace of job creation was concentrated in the goods producing sector (mining and manufacturing); construction jobs are doing ok and the the services sector has, so far, not being affected by manufacturing slowdown. Overall, the 6-month pace of job creation in the goods sector slowed from 50k (at the end of last year) to close to 17k, while in the services sector it slowed from 220k to 202k in the same comparison.

Employment categories

  • Total nonfarm
    • Total private
      • Goods-producing
        • Mining and logging
        • Construction
        • Manufacturing
      • Private service-providing
        • Trade, transportation, and utilities
          • Wholesale trade
          • Retail trade
          • Transportation and warehousing
          • Utilities
        • Information
        • Financial activities
        • Professional and business services
          • Temporary help services
        • Education and health services
          • Educational services
          • Health care and social assistance
        • Leisure and hospitality
        • Other services
    • Government

Charts

Total nonfarm (trend from 242.1 to 241.7 to 243.3/m)

Total private (trend from 235.0 to 234.5 to 235.5/m)

Goods-producing (trend from 32.4 to 30.4 to 28.9/m)

Mining and logging (trend from -1.5 to -2.0 to -2.3/m)

Construction (trend from 21.8 to 21.7 to 21.8/m)

Manufacturing (trend from 13.0 to 12.0 to 11.2/m)

Private service-providing (trend from 202.6 to 204.1 to 206.7/m)

Wholesale trade (trend from 7.8 to 7.5 to 7.3/m)

Retail trade (trend from 23.9 to 24.2 to 23.9/m)

Transportation and warehousing (trend from 12.1 to 11.4 to 11.5/m)

Utilities (trend from 0.7 to 0.8 to 0.8/m)

Information (trend from 3.8 to 3.9 to 4.2/m)

Financial activities (trend from 11.8 to 12.2 to 12.4/m)

Professional and business services (trend from 54.2 to 54.4 to 54.9/m)

Temporary help services (trend from 11.7 to 11.2 to 11.1/m)

Educational services (trend from 4.1 to 4.4 to 4.6/m)

Health care and social assistance (trend from 40.9 to 42.3 to 43.8/m)

Leisure and hospitality (trend from 37.1 to 37.3 to 37.5/m)

Other services (trend from 6.1 to 5.8 to 5.8/m)

Government (trend from 7.1 to 7.2 to 7.7/m)

Dr. Paulo Gustavo Grahl, CFA (2016-01-11)


US External Trade likely to be a drag on growth again in Q4

Posted on January 6th, 2016

Main takeaways:
  • Net exports likely to be a drag on growth again (~0.4pp).
  • Real imports dropped in the last three months, but the trend in the last 12-months is still a healthy 4.6% growth pace.
  • Weak US exports hit by strong dollar and sluggish global trade.

Real non-petroleum exports are down 2% in Oct/Nov vs Q3 and imports are down 0.6% in the same comparison. Excluding petroleum, exports volume contracted by 1.6% and imports by 0.4%.

Trade results for October/November, if repeated in December, would lead to another negative contribution of external trade to growth of around 0.4pp. But negative contribution from external trade to growth, per se, does not imply overall GDP growth will be weak (see for instance the negative contributions from net exports to growth in the 1997-2005 period)

The charts below show the volumes of non-petroleum exports and imports. Exports volume is flat while imports volume is growing at around 5%.

Last 20 years (trend shows last 2 years)
Last 3 years (trend shows last 12 months)
YoY growth

The jump in import growth precedes the stronger USD and coincides with an upturns in job creation and consumption that happened in 2014 -- therefore not likely to be a strong consequence of the currency strength and import substitution (although it may play some role).
The slowdown in exports, however, happened at the turn of the year, and therefore could potentially be a quick response to the strenghtening of the dollar that started in mid-2014.

However, the chart below shows that US exports are moving roughly in tandem with world exports. US exports relative to world exports dropped since the start of 2015, but the size of the adjustment does not suggest that the dollar strengthening is playing a major role for weak US exports.

Of course it could be just a matter of time for US exports to shrink relative to world exports, but the recent weak performance seems more likely a result of sluggish world trade rather than dollar strength.

Meanwhile, the ISM export orders improved a bit but still do not suggest upside in the near term.



Paulo Gustavo Grahl, CFA

Random comments on macro data. Views are my own. Except when they aren't.