Main takeaways:
  • World trade volumes resilient, despite risk-off in financial markets.
  • World trade volumes growing at around 2.5% per year.
  • Global industrial production growing at 1%, but the recent slowdown in growth is due to US; ex. US, global IP is growing at 1.5%-2%.
The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Analysis (CPB - Centraal Planbureau) has released world trade volume and industrial production data for December.

Chart 1a) Volume of world trade (exports & imports, seasonally adjusted)

Chart 1b) Volume of world trade (seasonally adjusted)

The charts below zoom in to the most recent four years to highlight the behavior of trade volumes at margin.
Export trend growth in the last two years slowed from 2.4% to 2.1% (from July to September) but rose to 3.7% in December.
Import trend growth slowed from 1.8% to 1.6% (from July to September) but moved up to 2.2% in December.

Chart 2a) Volume of world exports (seasonally adjusted, last 4 years)

Chart 2b) Volume of world imports (seasonally adjusted, last 4 years)

Chart 2c) Volume of world imports ex ASIA (seasonally adjusted, last 4 years)

Chart 3a) World Industrial Production (seasonally adjusted)

Chart 3b) World Industrial Production ex US (seasonally adjusted)

Chart 3b) World Industrial Production (seasonally adjusted)